丘陵地区边界层风廓线雷达数据统计特性分析   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

汪学渊  汪波  文明章  吴昌叨  张磊 《气象科学》2015,35(3):328-333

采用数据获取率来分析和评价风廓线雷达的探测能力, 对通过2012年的风廓线数据进行统计分析。结果表明:数据获取率和信噪比都随季节变化, 夏季探测能力大于冬季。按照数据获取率达到80%的要求, 确定边界层风廓线雷达无降雨天气有效探测高度为3 km, 并确定低模和高模最佳衔接高度为0.6 km, 能够获得更好的数据获取率。在无降雨天气, 信噪比随高度呈现对数函数单调递减的变化规律, 夏季信噪比的衰减程度比冬季大;在降雨天气, 信噪比随高度呈现一次函数的变化规律, 其斜率范围在-10.44~-2.47之间, 而夏季信噪比的衰减程度比冬季小。  相似文献   

大连“11．28”翻船事故风浪分析     

李燕  黄振  刘晓初  赵繁盛  刘大刚 《气象与环境学报》2015,(3)

利用自动气象站资料、常规气象观测资料、NCEP全球再分析资料及WAVEWATCH III模式预报资等料对2012年11月28日大连翻船事故的大风大浪实况、事故成因及演变情况进行分析。结果表明：大连此次翻船事故高空的强冷空气促使冷涡加强,西部大陆高压和蒙古气旋不断加强东移,东南部海上高压稳定少动,蒙古气旋底前部与海上高压顶后部梯度加大,梯度密集区正好位于渤海海峡,造成黄海和渤海偏西大风;低层辐散和中层辐合的垂直结构加强了低层以下的上下扰动,构成南北垂直环流,中层以下动力强迫下沉气流将北侧中层的动量下传至辽东半岛南部地面及黄海、渤海海面,使其不断获得动能,有利于偏西大风的加强;西南向岸大风有利于浪高增长,偏西大风及与其同时增长的大浪是大连地区此次翻船事故的主要原因。  相似文献   

风廓线雷达资料质量控制及其同化应用   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

张旭斌  万齐林  薛纪善  丁伟钰  李昊睿 《气象学报》2015,73(1):159-176

为更好地同化风廓线雷达观测资料开展了相应的质量控制与同化应用研究。针对2013年5月广东地区13部风廓线雷达的观测数据,采用经验正交函数(EOF) 分析方法对其进行质量控制。相比原始观测,经过质量控制的风场提高(降低)了来自时空大(小)尺度的贡献,较好地滤除了小尺度高频脉动,也较好地保留了大尺度平均状态与局地中小尺度系统的共同影响,并且更加接近ECMWF再分析场。此外,还对质量控制后的数据进行了垂直稀疏化。分别计算了质量控制前、后风廓线雷达观测与NCEP 6 h预报场的差值,对比差值的特征发现,经过质量控制的数据的观测增量更好地满足了高斯分布与无偏假设。针对一个实际天气个例,基于GRAPES 3D-Var同化系统,分析了质量控制后的风廓线雷达资料对模式分析与预报的影响。试验表明,在循环同化过程中加入风廓线雷达资料可以更好地描述模式初始场低层风场的特征,从而对强降水的位置与强度做出更好的预报。针对2013年5月的批量试验表明,同化风廓线雷达资料使短期降水预报有明显的改善。  相似文献   

IMPACT OF SSTA OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN YUNNAN     

杨竹云  杨素雨  严华生  张瑾文 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(3):255-264

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric (SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan’s rain season. Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan. The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called “West Wind Drift” in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru (cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.  相似文献   

北太平洋海表面高度(SSH) 与风应力变化的关系     

黄琳  孙佳  杨逸秋  袁逸凡 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(1):111-119

利用1958-2008年的北太平洋海表面高度和风应力资料,并与ENSO和PDO指数进行相关分析.结果发现,风应力及其经向分量主要通过季节振动影响海表面高度(SSH)的年周期变化,纬向风应力主要通过多年振动影响SSH的ENSO和PDO周期.纬向风应力和SSH均以黑潮延伸体主轴为界,两侧呈现出相反的升降趋势,SSH为北降南升,纬向风应力南降北升.风应力和SSH升降趋势相同,均表现为“上升—下降—上升”的变化特征.在地形变化剧烈、等深线南北分布的海区,西风增强会导致SSH升高,且西侧升高较为明显.北风增强将导致北太平洋西岸SSH升高,东岸SSH降低.  相似文献   

Mapping daily temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China     

Shou-zhang Peng  Chuan-yan Zhao  Xiao-ping Wang  Zhong-lin Xu  Xing-ming Liu  Hu Hao  Shi-fei Yang 《山地科学学报》2014,11(4):896-905

Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model （MTCLIM） with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods （the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM） in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature （i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature） and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation： firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices （i.e., Pearson＇s correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency） were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.  相似文献   

风廓线雷达大气风场观测误差分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

董德保  张统明  芮斌 《气象科技》2014,42(1):48-53

依据风廓线雷达工作原理和风的计算公式,分析影响大气风场观测误差的主要因素,重点分析了雷达回波SNR对风的观测精度影响和GPS探空对比试验。结果表明:①风速观测精度主要取决于波束倾角、雷达技术参数和大气折射率结构常数C2n的垂直分布;风速及风速观测精度越大,风向观测精度越大。②在同种观测模式下,波束倾角与C2n越大,风场观测精度越高。③同一观测模式的SNR越大,风速观测误差越小;不同模式间的大气风场观测精度相差较大。④对比试验的风速风向相关性较好,但相对偏差较大,尤其低空更为明显。  相似文献   

WRF模式对福建沿海风电场风速预测的效果分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

杨光焰  吴息  周海 《气象科学》2014,34(5):530-535

在WRF模式中选取不同的边界层、近地面层以及陆面过程参数化方案,设计了4种不同物理过程参数化方案,组合模拟福建沿海某测风塔站2010年1月1—11日和7月1—11日的逐时风速,将数值模拟结果和同期测风塔观测数据进行对比,以寻求最佳参数化方案。经分析比较,采用MYJ边界层方案,Monin-Obukhov近地面层方案以及Noah陆面过程方案的方案2模拟效果最好。使用该方案对2010年1月和7月的风速进行模拟,按不同风速级别分别对数值模拟结果进行对比分析,结果表明:方案2对6~15m/s风速模拟的平均相对误差在20%左右,能够满足风电预测的精度需求;而对0~6m/s风速模拟的误差相对较大,这可能是由于模式地形分辨率不够精细以及风塔所处海陆交界处的特殊位置,使低风速容易受地面扰动以及海陆气流影响所致。  相似文献   

闽北地区边界层移动风廓线雷达对比试验评估     

汪学渊  任雍  李栋 《气象与环境科学》2014,37(3):108-113

为了更好地把握风廓线雷达的探测性能和数据精度,对移动风廓线雷达与L波段探空雷达资料进行对比统计分析,结果表明：移动风廓线雷达的有效数据获取率达到80％的高度为3500m,符合边界层风廓线雷达的有效探测高度。移动风廓线的径向速度平均差和标准差随着高度的增加而增加,东西方向的径向速度误差比南北方向的高约0．5—1．0m／s。风廓线雷达自身数据的准确性良好,但是降雨对数据的准确性影响比较大。这次对比试验结果表明,对比试验应该选择比较平稳的天气过程。由于秋冬季节大气环流比较稳定,降雨类型多为层状云降雨,因而风廓线雷达数据可靠性高;对流性降雨过程往往造成风廓线雷达资料可靠性降低。  相似文献   

Lacustrine basin unconventional resource plays: Key differences     

《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2014

There has been a revival in hydrocarbon source rock characterization and development associated with growing interest in unconventional resources, where these fine-grained organic-rich rocks act as both source and reservoir. To-date, the exploration focus on shale reservoirs has been largely on marine systems. Lacustrine source rocks for conventional resources are geographically important, dominating regions such as China, Indonesia, and Brazil's resource-base. However, they have been generally untested for unconventional resources.There are a number of key differences in the nature of these hydrocarbon systems that should be considered when assessing whether lacustrine systems may represent future unconventional opportunities in areas where the conventional resource-base is dominated by lacustrine-sourced oil. Among the key differences between these depositional systems is the greater sensitivity to high frequency climatic variability within lacustrine systems. Lacustrine systems are highly sensitive to changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation, which may lead to rapid changes in lake level, potentially exceeding 600 m. These changes in depositional conditions are geologically rapid and may occur over periods of thousands of years. Such changes can reduce the areal extent of potentially thick source rock intervals to only those portions of a basin where a permanent deep lake was present. Thus the core unconventional target area may be geographically limited compared with their marine counterpart. Although potentially areally limited, a review of many lacustrine source rocks suggests that their thicknesses are often significantly greater than marine source rocks. An examination of the more distal portions of lacustrine systems, where better source rock potential is present reveals that there is generally limited connectivity between source and conventional reservoir. In these settings, such as the Wind River basin (Waltman Shale), the hydrocarbons remain trapped within the shales, potentially leading to over-pressured hydrocarbon charged systems. Such conditions suggest that although areally limited, viable unconventional targets may exist, if suitable reservoir conditions are present. Finally, the character of the oils produced is different in these settings, with lacustrine oils being waxy and displaying different hydrocarbon generation and cracking kinetics. High wax oils display distinct flow characteristics, being more viscous, and may offer different production challenges than their non-waxy marine equivalents. Additionally, differences in their cracking kinetics may indicate that the timing of gas generation for shale gas plays may differ significantly from marine systems.  相似文献